Great advice above, and I’ll add one other dimension to consider. Most user groups are happy to have first time presenters. They tend to be lower-stress and smaller audiences that you can get some honest feedback from afterward on your presentation skills. This sort of experience would be a positive thing for reviewers to see in your notes to the organizers. It will also help you gain confidence that you have something to start with that just needs some tweaks before giving the talk at a major conference.
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